Russia, Iran, and North Korea Strengthen Their Alliance to Counter Western Influence and Sanctions

The annexation of Crimea in 2014 and Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 have challenged the international rules-based order and prompted a reconfiguration of global alliances. Facing severe Western sanctions in response to its aggression, Russia has sought to build new partnerships to sustain its military and economic needs. Central to this strategy is the deepening of ties with Iran and North Korea, two countries with longstanding resistance to Western policies.

Since 2022, Russia has increasingly relied on Iran for military support, particularly through the provision of drones. Iran's Shahed-136 drones, rebranded by Russia as Geran-2, have been used extensively in Ukraine, helping Moscow compensate for its losses in precision weaponry. Western intelligence has also indicated that Iran may have provided short-range ballistic missiles, such as the Fath-360, to Russia, though Tehran has denied these reports. In return, Russia has supplied Iran with advanced military technology, particularly in the aerospace and defense sectors, and both nations have expanded economic cooperation to circumvent sanctions on energy and arms.

North Korea, in turn, has supplied Russia with artillery shells and ammunition as the war in Ukraine continues to strain Russia's domestic production capabilities. According to U.S. officials, Pyongyang has sent millions of artillery shells to Moscow, helping to replenish Russian stockpiles. This arms trade has come amid deepening ties between Russian President Vladimir Putin and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un. In September 2023, Kim visited Russia's Vostochny Cosmodrome, where the two leaders discussed military cooperation, including possible technology transfers for North Korea's satellite and missile programs.

Iran's Calculated Diplomacy

For Iran, this evolving relationship with Russia is part of a broader foreign policy strategy to manage both regional and global pressures. On one hand, Tehran is working to revitalize its nuclear deal with Western powers, hoping to reduce the economic sanctions that have crippled its economy. Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2024, reiterated Iran's willingness to return to the 2015 nuclear agreement framework, provided that sanctions are lifted. He argued for separating nuclear talks from other regional conflicts to create space for negotiation.

Simultaneously, however, Iran is expanding its military and economic ties with Russia, especially in light of their mutual opposition to U.S. influence in the Middle East. Iranian officials reportedly mediated secret talks between Russia and Yemen's Houthi rebels, leading to discussions on the possible supply of Russian P-800 Oniks anti-ship missiles. These weapons could potentially be used by the Houthis to disrupt maritime traffic in the Red Sea, a key strategic waterway.

Iran has also benefited from its cooperation with Russia by acquiring advanced weaponry and defense technology. Reports suggest that Russia has shared intelligence and missile technology tested in Ukraine with Iran, further enhancing Tehran's military capabilities. This military collaboration has also led to the expansion of joint projects, such as drone manufacturing, with Russian and Iranian engineers reportedly working together in Russia's Tatarstan region to produce the Shahed drones.

North Korea's Expanding Role

North Korea's growing involvement in this triangle of cooperation has been marked by high-level diplomatic and military engagements with Russia. During his September 2023 visit to Russia, Kim Jong Un was promised military and technical support, which could include advanced missile technology and satellite systems. For North Korea, which continues to pursue an ambitious missile and nuclear development program, this partnership with Russia offers a rare opportunity to acquire advanced military hardware in exchange for its support in Ukraine.

In addition to arms supplies, North Korea has reportedly gained access to Russian technologies that can enhance its space and missile programs. North Korea's plans to launch military reconnaissance satellites and develop more sophisticated intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) could be accelerated by this cooperation. This is a significant concern for the United States and its allies, as it signals an advancement in Pyongyang's ability to project power and potentially increase regional instability.

This newfound alignment with Russia allows North Korea to diversify its strategic partnerships beyond its traditional dependence on China. Historically, China has been North Korea's primary economic partner, accounting for over 90% of its trade. However, as Pyongyang forges deeper ties with Moscow, it indicates that Kim Jong Un is looking to balance his country's foreign relations by relying less exclusively on Beijing's support.

The West's Strategic Response

The strengthening of ties among Russia, Iran, and North Korea presents significant challenges for the international community, particularly Western powers. The alliances enable these nations to share military technology, evade sanctions, and support each other in ways that could undermine international efforts to promote regional stability and non-proliferation.

In response to these developments, NATO and its member states, including Germany, have taken measures to enhance their deterrence and defense capabilities. The 2023 NATO summit in Vilnius saw commitments to increase defense spending and reinforce the alliance's eastern flank. Germany, demonstrating alliance solidarity and a commitment to assume leadership responsibilities, decided to permanently station a German brigade in Lithuania. As German Defense Minister Boris Pistorius stated during the signing of the stationing agreement, this brigade signifies Germany's determination to defend alliance territory at NATO's eastern flank.

For the Bundeswehr, Germany's armed forces, this changing geopolitical landscape necessitates a refocus from international crisis management back to national and alliance defense. Achieving combat readiness within the next five years is a clear mandate. Central to this effort is enhancing leadership capability, which includes the ability to execute tasks and orders effectively under existing personnel, technical, and organizational conditions in any situation. This capability extends beyond German forces to include interoperability and cooperation with alliance partners, both technically and operationally.

Multi-Domain Operations and Cooperative Defense

To address the evolving challenges posed by the Russia-Iran-North Korea triangle, NATO and its members are emphasizing the importance of Multi-Domain Operations (MDO). MDO involves the coordinated use of military actions across multiple domains—land, air, sea, space, and cyber—synchronized with non-military activities. This approach aims to make operations faster, more precise, and more effective, thereby overwhelming potential adversaries or forcing them into difficult strategic decisions.

Three guiding principles underpin this strategy:

1. Multinational Leadership: Leadership is considered in conjunction with NATO and EU partners, with national and alliance defense inherently involving collaboration.
2. Cross-Domain Integration: Successful future combat operations require effects delivered across multiple domains, not just from a single domain.
3. Cooperative Civil-Military Partnerships: Future leadership involves cooperation with civilian partners, including other government departments and industry, to ensure comprehensive national defense.

By adopting these principles, NATO aims to enhance its collective defense posture, ensuring that member states are prepared to meet the complexities of modern warfare. The Bundeswehr's development of the Operational Architecture Leadership Capability (OpArch FühFa Bw) exemplifies this effort. This initiative models processes, structures, procedures, and capabilities into a digital, analyzable framework—a digital twin—that serves as a "voice of the operators." It provides a comprehensive perspective on data and information exchange among various entities, enhancing interoperability and enabling a more efficient allocation of resources.

Diplomatic Implications and Opportunities

While the alliances among Russia, Iran, and North Korea are concerning, they are also fragile and transactional rather than ideological. Each country faces its own domestic and international pressures, which can be leveraged to create diplomatic opportunities. For instance, Iran's desire to revitalize its nuclear deal with Western powers could be an avenue for engagement. Similarly, North Korea's economic needs might make it receptive to negotiations that offer economic relief in exchange for denuclearization steps.

The West's ability to manage these challenges will depend on a nuanced approach that balances diplomatic pressure with efforts to exploit potential divisions within this triangle. By enhancing defense capabilities and fostering multinational cooperation, as exemplified by NATO's initiatives and Germany's increasing leadership ambitions, Western powers can deter aggression while remaining open to diplomatic solutions.

In summary, while the Russia-Iran-North Korea alignment presents a serious challenge, it remains vulnerable to external pressures. A nuanced strategy blending deterrence, multi-domain defense capabilities, and diplomatic engagement will help navigate these evolving alliances and maintain regional stability.