The potential reintegration of Turkey into the F-35 Lightning II program has emerged as a significant development in global military aviation, with Turkish Defense Minister Yasar Guler's recent statements suggesting a possible shift in U.S. policy. This complex situation, involving NATO's second-largest military, represents a critical junction in Western military technology transfer and geopolitical relations.

Historical Context and Program Exclusion

Turkey's involvement with the F-35 program initially positioned the nation as both a development partner and prospective customer for 100 aircraft. The relationship culminated in significant milestones, including the first Turkish F-35's maiden flight on June 30, 2018, and the commencement of pilot training at Luke Air Force Base in Arizona. However, Ankara's acquisition of the Russian S-400 air defense system triggered a severe response from Washington, resulting in Turkey's expulsion from the program and the impoundment of six completed F-35s on U.S. soil.

Current Developments in Turkish Air Force Modernization

Recent developments suggest a potential recalibration of positions. Turkey has secured approval for acquiring 40 F-16 Block 70 aircraft, representing the most advanced variant of the Fighting Falcon. Simultaneously, Turkish Aerospace Industries (TUSAS) has demonstrated progress with the indigenous KAAN fighter jet program, which Turkish officials suggest has influenced U.S. perspectives on F-35 access.

Technical and Strategic Considerations

The technical landscape of Turkey's fighter modernization program presents several critical aspects:

The six impounded F-35s, reportedly stored at Edwards Air Force Base, require continuous maintenance funding, with the U.S. now requesting significant financial compensation for upkeep. Turkey's interest extends beyond these aircraft, with reports indicating desires for 40 conventional F-35A models and potentially 20 F-35B STOVL variants, the latter intended for deployment aboard the TCG Anadolu amphibious assault ship.

Turkish indigenous capabilities have advanced significantly, with TUSAS developing the MURAD AESA radar for the KAAN fighter and ASELSAN's Özgür avionics system successfully replacing U.S.-made mission computers in F-16 upgrades. These developments have led Turkey to decline 79 previously planned F-16 modernization kits from the United States.

The S-400 Conundrum

The fundamental obstacle to Turkey's F-35 aspirations remains the S-400 air defense system. U.S. Under Secretary for Acquisition and Sustainment Ellen M. Lord previously emphasized that the proximity of Russian information-gathering systems to F-35 operations poses unacceptable risks to the aircraft's stealth capabilities. Recent combat performance of S-400 systems in Ukraine, particularly their reported vulnerability to aging ATACMS missiles and Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles, may influence Turkish strategic calculations.

Diplomatic and Industrial Implications

The potential reintegration of Turkey into the F-35 program carries significant implications for the defense industrial base. Turkey's previous role included manufacturing of approximately 1,000 components for the F-35, with Turkish companies like TUSAS and ASELSAN playing crucial roles in the global supply chain. Minister Guler's emphasis on restoring Turkey's production share indicates the industrial significance extends beyond mere aircraft acquisition.

Future Prospects and Challenges

Several factors will influence the trajectory of Turkey's F-35 aspirations:

The resolution of the S-400 issue remains paramount, with previous U.S. proposals suggesting relocation to Incirlik Air Base under American monitoring or complete transfer of the system. Turkey's new "Steel Dome" air defense concept notably omits mention of the S-400, potentially signaling flexibility in its position.

The evolving regional security environment, particularly Greece's acquisition of 20 F-35As, adds urgency to Turkey's considerations. The potential capability gap between these NATO allies could influence strategic calculations in the Eastern Mediterranean.

Conclusion

Turkey's potential return to the F-35 program represents a complex intersection of military technology, industrial policy, and international relations. While Minister Guler's statements suggest optimism, substantial obstacles remain, particularly regarding the S-400 system. The resolution of this situation will significantly influence NATO's southeastern flank's military capabilities and broader Western-Turkish relations.

The path forward likely requires careful diplomatic navigation, potentially involving compromises on air defense arrangements and renewed commitments to NATO interoperability. As Turkey advances its indigenous defense capabilities through programs like KAAN, the strategic value of F-35 acquisition may evolve, potentially creating new opportunities for resolution of this long-standing impasse.

Sources: Flugrevue, bne Intellinews