Georgia in Post-Electoral Crisis: Moscow’s Influence in Tbilisi
Due to its closeness to Russia, Georgia has become a hotbed of Russian regional influence. Since Georgian Dream came to power in 2012, the party has maintained what it calls “strategic patience” with Russia.
Georgia's elections have raised alarm over potential Russian gains in the Caucasus, with allegations of fraud and pro-Russian sway. Tbilisi’s ruling party Georgian Dream tightens its power despite these claims - analysts caution this could enable Russia to increase its hold over Georgia, posing direct risks to regional stability.
Electoral Dispute and Rising Tensions
Following the Oct. 26 elections, Georgian Dream declared victory, but observers—including the OSCE—reported widespread irregularities, intimidation, and interference at the polls, according to Foreign Policy. President Salome Zourabichvili, whose role is largely ceremonial, has publicly challenged the vote’s legitimacy, alleging that the ruling party “stole” the election with Russian assistance. Local Georgian polling organizations, as reported by Civil Georgia, declared the results "statistically improbable".
In response, Georgian courts have nullified results in certain districts, but the opposition has committed to sustaining mass protests until new elections are held. Consequently, Georgia remains deeply polarized over the unresolved political crisis and open to various external pressures, including Russian meddling.
Moscow’s Strategy and Growing Influence
Given its proximity to Russia, Georgia has become a target for Russian regional hegemony. The party has always followed a “strategic patience” policy toward Russia since Georgian Dream took over the country in 2012 - refraining from direct confrontation while fostering gradual economic ties. Critics argue that this policy increasingly aligns Georgia with Moscow’s interests. According to Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty, Georgian Dream recently enacted a Russian-inspired “foreign agents” law targeting media and NGOs with foreign funding—an initiative that has been widely criticized by the EU and opposition groups as repressive.
Tbilisi has also declined to enforce visa restrictions on Russian nationals, leading to an influx of Russians since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, as reported by Eurasianet. Georgian media outlets have additionally suggested that Tbilisi may be aiding Moscow in circumventing Western sanctions, raising Western concerns over Georgia’s potential shift toward Russia.
Military Observations and Border Security Concerns
The Kremlin's influence in Georgia extends beyond political channels, with a significant military presence in the occupied Georgian regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia. Moscow is denser in these areas with its military infrastructures since the 2008 Russia-Georgia war. Anti-occupation activist David Katsarava told Foreign Policy that recent surveillance indicates increased Russian military activity in South Ossetia, including additional armored vehicles and expanded troop numbers near the village of Odzisi.
Military analysts have expressed concerns about Georgia’s diminishing defense capabilities. According to an active Georgian armed forces lieutenant colonel cited in Foreign Policy, overall military readiness and morale have declined, and Western defense cooperation programs have reportedly been cut back. Defense spending has also dropped since 2008, a trend that some experts believe could compromise Georgia’s ability to respond to potential Russian aggression.
Regional Implications of Moscow’s Influence in Tbilisi
Analysts suggest that Georgia’s drift toward Moscow could impact the regional power balance, with direct implications for the Caucasus. According to the Jamestown Foundation, Russian influence over Georgia would enhance Moscow’s control of vital energy routes through the Caucasus, providing a strategic advantage over regional actors such as Turkey and extending Moscow’s reach toward Armenia and Iran. Increased Russian presence in Georgia could also fortify Russia’s position in the Black Sea, potentially limiting NATO and EU influence in the region.
Some Georgian national security veterans, interviewed by Foreign Policy, draw parallels between Georgia’s current trajectory and Belarus’s alignment under President Alexander Lukashenko, fearing that Georgian civil institutions could be gradually subordinated to Moscow’s interests.
Georgian Dream’s Policy and Western Responses
Georgian Dream officials reject the notion that they are moving closer to Russia, stating that their policy of “strategic patience” is designed to preserve stability. Party officials, such as Foreign Affairs Committee Chairman Nikoloz Samkharadze, told Foreign Policy that their approach is intended to prevent a direct confrontation with Russia. However, Western observers are increasingly skeptical, particularly given Georgian Dream’s restrictions on civil liberties and democratic institutions.
The European Union has signaled that Georgia’s EU candidate status could be jeopardized by the current political direction. As Euronews reports, EU leaders have condemned Georgia’s “foreign agents” law and have stated that further repression could impact Georgia’s Western integration efforts.
Conclusion
As Moscow prepares to capitalize on Georgia's internal instability, Tbilisi's political vacuum may be an inflection point for the country's geopolitical orientation. Now, with Georgian Dream cementing its hold as the country's ties with Russia have grown stronger, Western analysts worry that Georgia is adding to its own isolation from Europe and NATO.
These kinds of swings could potentially be destabilizing to the Caucasus, strengthening Moscow’s position in that important region and pushing the Russian strategic frontier further into the Black Sea basin — and beyond.
