Poland Excludes Germany in Diplomatic Push for Ukraine

Poland’s Tusk Launches Ukraine Support Initiative, Excludes Germany

WARSAW – Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk has announced a new diplomatic effort to support Ukraine and reinforce European security, anticipating possible policy changes under President-elect Donald Trump. Tusk has scheduled meetings with several European leaders, including French President Emmanuel Macron, UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, and NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte, as well as leaders from Nordic and Baltic states, to discuss transatlantic cooperation and the ongoing Ukraine-Russia conflict.

Tusk’s Exclusion of Germany in Ukraine Diplomatic Efforts

Tusk’s initiative notably does not include Germany, highlighting a shift in Poland’s diplomatic approach. Relations between Warsaw and Berlin have shown signs of cooling in recent months, despite initial optimism after Tusk’s election as prime minister. Last month, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz did not include Tusk in a key summit on Ukraine attended by U.S. President Joe Biden, Macron, and Starmer, signaling tensions in the Poland-Germany diplomatic relationship.

Mujtaba Rahman, Europe Director at the Eurasia Group, noted that the longstanding “Weimar Triangle” partnership among Germany, France, and Poland has been an important element of European diplomatic efforts but added that recent events may reflect changing dynamics.

Europe Prepares for Potential Shifts in U.S. Involvement

With Trump’s return to office, European leaders are preparing for potential changes in U.S. foreign policy regarding Ukraine. Tusk expressed that the upcoming political landscape could bring “serious challenges” for European security, particularly if there is a reduction in U.S. involvement in Ukraine. He referenced the possibility of peace negotiations between Russia and the U.S., suggesting that this shift may alter the current approach to Ukraine’s defense.

“There is no doubt that this new political landscape presents a serious challenge for everyone, especially concerning a possible end to the Russia-Ukraine war through negotiations between Russia and the new U.S. administration,” Tusk told Reuters.

Trump has previously stated his goal of resolving the war “within 24 hours” if re-elected but has not elaborated on continued support for Ukraine. Trump's running mate, J.D. Vance, indicated that a peace deal may involve Ukraine ceding some territories to Russia and reconsidering NATO membership aspirations.

European Concerns Over Rapid Peace Deals

European officials have expressed concerns about the possibility of a rapid peace agreement. Observers in Kyiv worry that a quick resolution might not address Ukraine's long-term security needs. Oleksandra Matviychuk, a Ukrainian Nobel laureate, noted in an interview with Handelsblatt that complex international issues often require careful, multi-faceted solutions, warning that a simplified approach could allow Russia to regroup.

Strengthening European-Led Security

In light of these developments, Tusk emphasized the need for Europe to enhance its own security initiatives and reduce reliance on the U.S. "In the coming days, we will intensify coordination with countries that share our perspective on the geopolitical and transatlantic situation and the situation in Ukraine," Tusk said, noting the importance of strategic cooperation with like-minded European countries.

Lukasz Adamski of Poland’s Mieroszewski Centre commented that Poland’s commitment to Ukraine remains steadfast. With Polish presidential elections set for May, both major political parties in Poland continue to support strong ties with Ukraine as a buffer against Russian influence.

Ukraine’s Outreach to Trump

Following Trump’s election, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky extended a congratulatory message to Trump and engaged in a phone call, during which Tesla and SpaceX CEO Elon Musk reportedly participated. Musk’s involvement is viewed as a possible indicator of his influence on Trump’s foreign policy direction.

As Tusk’s initiative gains momentum, it reflects an effort to build a coordinated European approach to support Ukraine amid shifting U.S. priorities.

Sources:

Handelsblatt, “Polish PM Donald Tusk Leads Diplomatic Effort for Ukraine, Excludes Germany”

Reuters, “Polish PM Tusk on Europe’s Security Challenges with Trump Presidency”

Eurasia Group Analysis by Mujtaba Rahman, “The Weimar Triangle and EU Strategy”

Interview with Oleksandra Matviychuk, Handelsblatt